Incerteza e Risco
Este artigo foi escrito em colaboração com o ChatGPT, as partes que foram especificamente criadas por ela durante uma conversa estão explicitamente destacadas.
Espero que gostem…
Se vivemos em um contexto complexo, altamente interdependente e interconectado, que é constantemente desafiado por situações ambíguas e paradoxais, onde a clareza de significados pode ser inexistente assim como as suas interpretação requeiram uma abordagem diferente da visão linear de problema-solução, é certo que nós também vivemos em um cenário repleto de incertezas.
Incerteza pode ser definida pelo desconhecimento sobre o estado de algo ou aquilo que não é definido ou conhecido.
Por exemplo, dado o cenário macroeconômico incerto é possível determinar a demanda esperada para um produto nos próximos 3, 6, 12, ou 18 meses?
Dado o contexto social incerto e em constante mudança conseguimos determinar as predileções dos nossos clientes e os seus hábitos de consumo para os próximos anos?
Dadas as inovações e disrupções tecnológicas conseguimos saber de onde virá a nova onda de crescimento e tendências da indústria onde estamos inseridos?
Além disso, em um cenário como o descrito nos exemplos acima, é comum que os líderes, gestores e talentos se percebam com um alto grau de ansiedade - caracterizado pela antecipação / impaciência frente a multidão de cenários possíveis para o contexto em mãos.
Esse desafio não é composto apenas pela alta ansiedade, mas também costuma ser seguido por rotinas de auto defesa, caracterizadas pela negação do cenário incerto e a busca pela sensação de segurança, definição e certeza muitas vezes exemplificada pela demanda por mais comando e controle sobre a situação.
Por último em um cenário complexo, ambíguo e incerto é extremamente comum encontrarmos a liderança em um estado de paralisia de analise:
“Analysis paralysis (or paralysis by analysis) describes an individual or group process where overanalyzing or overthinking a situation can cause forward motion or decision-making to become "paralyzed", meaning that no solution or course of action is decided upon within a natural time frame.
A situation may be deemed too complicated and a decision is never made, or made much too late, due to anxiety that a potentially larger problem may arise. A person may desire a perfect solution, but may fear making a decision that could result in error, while on the way to a better solution.
Equally, a person may hold that a superior solution is a short step away, and stall in its endless pursuit, with no concept of diminishing returns.”
Analysis Paralysis, Wikipedia
Todos os exemplos acima conspiram para um contexto extremamente desafiador quando lidamos com um cenário que possua um alto grau de incerteza.
Como lidar com a incerteza e risco?
Para explorar como podemos lidar com incerteza e risco no contexto de negócios, eu engajei com a ChatGPT da OpenAI em uma conversa sobre o tema e copio aqui o resultado:
Question: I am writing an article on uncertainty and risk in the context of the VUCA framework. This article is for business leaders and managers, and it should be focused on the business and strategy context. What do you think should be an important point of view to share with the readers?
Answer: The VUCA framework, which stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, is commonly used to describe the business environment and the challenges it presents.
In the context of uncertainty and risk, a key point for business leaders and managers to consider is the need to adopt a proactive approach to managing these challenges. This can involve using a range of tools and techniques, such as scenario planning and risk assessment, to anticipate potential risks and develop strategies to mitigate them.
Another important point to consider is the need to foster a culture of adaptability and flexibility within the organization, so that it can respond effectively to changing circumstances and take advantage of new opportunities.
Finally, it may be useful to highlight the potential benefits of embracing uncertainty and risk, such as the ability to innovate and differentiate the business from its competitors.
Question: How can business leaders foster a culture of adaptability and flexibility within the organization?
Answer: There are a number of ways that business leaders can foster a culture of adaptability and flexibility within the organization. Some possible approaches include:
Communicating the importance of adaptability and flexibility to the organization's success, and making it a key part of the company's vision and values.
Providing employees with the training, resources, and support they need to develop the skills and competencies required for adaptability and flexibility. This can include things like training in problem-solving, critical thinking, and decision-making, as well as providing access to tools and technologies that can help employees work more effectively in a changing environment.
Encouraging open communication and collaboration within the organization, and creating a workplace culture that values diversity of thought and encourages employees to share their ideas and perspectives.
Supporting a culture of experimentation and learning, where employees are encouraged to take risks, try new things, and learn from their mistakes. This can involve providing opportunities for employees to take on new challenges, experiment with new approaches, and learn from their experiences.
Creating a feedback-rich environment, where employees receive regular, constructive feedback on their work, and where there is a strong emphasis on continuous learning and improvement. This can help employees develop the skills and competencies they need to adapt to changing circumstances, and can also help to build a sense of ownership and accountability within the organization.
Question: What are the range of tools and techniques in order to better cope with uncertainty and risk in the business environment?
Answer: There are a range of tools and techniques that organizations can use to better cope with uncertainty and risk in the business environment. Some examples include:
Risk assessment and management techniques, such as conducting risk assessments to identify potential risks and developing strategies to mitigate or manage those risks.
Decision-making tools, such as decision trees and expected value analysis, which can help organizations to make more informed decisions in uncertain situations.
Contingency planning, in which organizations develop plans to respond to potential risks or disruptions, such as natural disasters or market disruptions.
Strategic planning and scenario planning, in which organizations develop long-term strategies and consider how to respond to different potential future scenarios.
Continuous learning and improvement, in which organizations prioritize learning and development, and regularly review and adapt their processes and practices in order to improve their ability to cope with uncertainty and risk.
Question: Could you elaborate on risk assessment, scenario planning and decision-making tools a little bit more. Can you provide some examples on how to apply them in the business context?
Answer: Risk assessment is a process that involves identifying potential risks that could affect an organization, assessing the likelihood and potential impact of those risks, and developing strategies to manage or mitigate them. Some common techniques used in risk assessment include:
Identifying potential risks through brainstorming sessions, interviews with stakeholders, or other methods
Assessing the likelihood and potential impact of each identified risk using a scale or other method
Developing strategies to manage or mitigate each identified risk, such as implementing controls or procedures to prevent the risk from occurring, transferring the risk to another party, or accepting the risk and planning for how to respond if it occurs
Scenario planning is a tool that organizations can use to anticipate and prepare for potential future events. In scenario planning, organizations develop multiple scenarios, or potential future states, and then analyze the implications of each scenario for the organization. This can help organizations to identify potential risks and opportunities, and develop strategies to respond to different potential future states.
Decision-making tools are techniques that organizations can use to help make more informed decisions in uncertain situations. Some common decision-making tools include:
Decision trees, which are diagrams that show the possible outcomes of different decisions, and the probabilities and potential values associated with each outcome
Expected value analysis, which involves calculating the expected value of each possible decision by multiplying the probability of each outcome by its potential value
Cost-benefit analysis, which involves quantifying the costs and benefits of each possible decision in order to determine the one that offers the greatest net benefit
These tools and techniques can be applied in a variety of business contexts, such as deciding which new products to develop, choosing between different investment opportunities, or determining the best response to a potential market disruption.
Question: Ok, can you elaborate on companies that have dealt with uncertainty and risk? Both startups and incumbent ones. What are the main challenges?
Answer: Successful companies that have dealt with uncertainty and risk include Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet. These companies have all demonstrated a strong ability to identify and respond to risks and opportunities, and to adapt and evolve in response to changing market conditions. This has been key to their success and their ability to maintain their competitive edge.
Incumbent companies, such as established corporations that have been in a market for a long time, can face challenges when it comes to dealing with uncertainty and risk.
One of the main challenges for incumbent companies is their tendency to be more risk-averse, due to the fact that they have a lot to lose if their established business model or product offering is disrupted. This can make it more difficult for incumbent companies to adapt and respond quickly to changing market conditions, and can make them more vulnerable to disruption by newer, more agile competitors.
On the other hand, startups may be more agile and able to adapt quickly to changing market conditions, but they may also face unique challenges, such as limited resources and a lack of established customer base or brand recognition.
Question: Uncertainty and risk are inevitably tied together when it comes to the business and competitive environment. How are those two linked together? Why is it important?
Answer: Uncertainty and risk are closely linked in the business and competitive environment because uncertainty often leads to risk. In a business context, uncertainty refers to the lack of predictability or clarity about future events or outcomes. This uncertainty can arise from a variety of sources, such as changes in market conditions, technological developments, or geopolitical events.
Risk, on the other hand, refers to the potential negative consequences of uncertainty. When faced with uncertainty, organizations may face risks such as financial losses, reduced market share, or damage to their reputation. These risks can have significant implications for an organization's performance and competitiveness.
It is important for organizations to understand the relationship between uncertainty and risk, and to have strategies in place for managing and mitigating those risks. In a rapidly changing and competitive business environment, the ability to anticipate and respond to uncertainty and risk can be a key factor in an organization's success.
Question: How does the concept of anti fragility, optionality and resilience connects with the notions of uncertainty and specially risk?
Answer: The concept of antifragility, optionality, and resilience are all related to the management of uncertainty and risk in the business environment. Antifragility is the property of a system or process that becomes stronger or more robust as a result of stress or adversity. In other words, an antifragile system is one that is able to adapt and even thrive in the face of uncertainty and risk.
Optionality is the ability to have multiple options or paths available in order to respond to changing circumstances. In a business context, optionality can refer to the ability to have multiple strategies or plans in place, so that an organization can choose the most appropriate one in response to changing market conditions or other sources of uncertainty.
Resilience is the ability of a system or organization to withstand or recover from disruptions or shocks. In a business context, resilience can refer to the ability of an organization to continue operating and serving its customers even in the face of unexpected challenges or disruptions.
Together, these concepts can help organizations to better cope with uncertainty and risk in the business environment. By adopting an antifragile approach, organizations can become stronger and more adaptable in the face of uncertainty. By maintaining optionality, organizations can have multiple paths available to respond to changing circumstances. And by building resilience, organizations can ensure that they can continue to operate and serve their customers even in the face of disruptions or shocks.
Question: Ok thanks. Do you have anything that you might find important and relevant to add on this topic, that we haven't mentioned in our previous questions and answers?
Answer: One additional point to consider when dealing with uncertainty and risk in a business context is the role of innovation. In a rapidly changing and competitive environment, organizations that are able to innovate and bring new products, services, or business models to market are often able to gain a competitive advantage and better manage uncertainty and risk.
Innovation can involve a range of activities, such as developing new products or services, implementing new technologies, or finding new ways of doing business. In order to foster a culture of innovation, organizations may need to invest in research and development, provide training and development opportunities for employees, and create an environment that is conducive to creativity and experimentation.
By fostering a culture of innovation, organizations can increase their ability to adapt and respond to changing market conditions, and can gain a competitive edge in the face of uncertainty and risk. This can be a key factor in the long-term success and competitiveness of an organization.
O próximo artigo da série vai ser sobre volatilidade. Espero que tenham gostado.